Fantasy Recap: Week One

Posted on 30. Oct, 2009 by David Bellenghi in Fantasy Hoops, NBA

With just less than a week of games underway, it’s easy to get excited over some potential box-score studs. There’s been some serious early production from sources that have not historically provided it. Is it real? Absolutely. The question is whether or not it’s sustainable. With such a small sample size of games, there are fewer data points to analyze. After all, even Danilo Gallinari can put together a decent line once. What fantasy owners want to know is whether you can expect it for an extended period of time. So before you go diving into free agency and snatching up fool’s gold, there are a couple of things you might want to consider.

Each week, right here on Flagrant Fouls, I will identify which players have filled the stat sheet, and which players have set fantasy owners back. I will also provide you with advice on which players to buy low and which players to sell high. Let’s get to it !!

Fantasy Monster: Carmelo Anthony

Melo has claimed all summer that he’s back and ready to take the next step in his development. Through two games, he’s certainly proved it. He’s scored 71 points, shot over 50% from the field, and put the Nuggets on his back. His 19 point 4th quarter performance last night proved he’s almost impossible to guard.

Fantasy Sleeper: Andray Blatche

Blatche has put up solid early numbers, and he’ll keep it up while Jamison is out of the lineup. His 20 point, 7 rebound performance is a great start to what I project will be an outstanding month. Andray has shown that with consistent minutes, he’ll provide consistent numbers. He’s long, athletic, and his upside is unseen. With Jamison out for the first 10-15 games of the season, he’ll be a great temporary fill for points, boards, and blocks. Once Jamison returns, he’s still a player worth keeping an eye on. With Blatche, minutes typically spell production.

Fantasy Bust: Elton Brand

This is a bit more difficult to assess, but my thinking is simple. He’s not the player he was two seasons ago. All signs seem to point to him not being back to his 20, 10 self. His production this year is likely to hover right around what we’ve seen so far… 13 and 8. Those numbers are more than acceptable from a mid round selection in your draft. That said, Brand was consistently drafted in the 3rd -4th rounds this season. If you can trade him in the early part of the season in exchange for true 3rd -4th round production, then you’ve likely improved your roster.

Buy Low

This group is made up of players who have under performed to date, but are likely to see solid statistical improvement. These are the guys you want to keep an eye on (if available on wire), or make a trade for if owned by somebody else. Since their value is perceived as low due to current form, you can likely get them without having to give up as much. Without much of a sample size in games my early choices are:

Baron Davis: He’s put up mild numbers to this point and had a very down year last season. Some experts and stat gurus have faith that Baron’s jump shot can return. I know what you’re thinking: Return to what? But it’s Baron’s FG% that hurts his fantasy owners teams most in a 9 category system. If Davis can get back to the 40% FG clip, he will be closer to the stud he was in Golden State. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to do so, because that’s where he’s been for his career. FG% aside, he’ll provide assists, steals, and 3’s at a steady clip. The skinny: Current owners might be down on Baron. Now’s the time to swoop in and make a trade.

Rookie point guards: Several rookies have shown that in deep leagues, they will provide much of what you are looking for. Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Johnny Flynn, and Ty Lawson all look like they are going to consistently out-produce the average veteran point guards in this league. All of these rookies have two things in common; opportunity for minutes and the ball in their hand. If they are not already owned in leagues deeper than 10 teams, they will be soon.

Sell High

With only three nights of NBA action complete, it’s not time to sell any of our guys just yet. If a trade proposal blows you out of the water, go for it. Otherwise, let’s stand pat and wait till next week.

David Bellenghi

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4 Responses to “Fantasy Recap: Week One”

  1. howard r

    31. Oct, 2009

    dont sell on brand just yet. if he is healthy enough to play than the numbers will follow. you will regret selling him low. he is the perfect buy candidate.

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  2. anthony S

    30. Oct, 2009

    Carmelo for MVP. Coming out party this season.

    And love the Blatche call. If he could ever get regular mins he could be a monster.

    keep it coming.

    Reply to this comment
  3. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Nolan Shulman, Nolan Shulman. Nolan Shulman said: New blog post: Fantasy Recap: Week One [...]

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  4. Nolan Shulman

    30. Oct, 2009

    Great Job David. Was very close to getting Baron in my fantasy keeper auction. Lost him by 0.1

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